The first month and a half of the 2022 NFL season has been everything but what we expected. Legendary quarterbacks like Brady and Rodgers are finally showing signs of older age; the Bengals and the Rams are still in a post-Super Bowl slump, while Stafford and Burrow both continue to struggle.
Through six weeks, it feels like we’re finally at the point where we know most teams’ identities, although teams can obviously look completely different by Week 18. However, it’s this time of the season we look at Super Bowl odds and try to predict who is going to break out in the next two-thirds of the season. While the favorites remain the same, there are some candidates with valuable odds to jump on now before they skyrocket.
The Favorites
Through Week 6, the Bills sit at 5-1 in the NFL standings and are in a tier of their own when it comes to Super Bowl odds. Josh Allen and company are +290 to take home the Lombardi Trophy. Bills Mafia has been the favorite all season long, and it’s for a good reason.
The Bills should rightfully be the favorites; there is no question about that. They have a plus 95 point differential, average the yards points per game, second most points per game (29.3), and allow the second least yards and the least points per game (13.5).
This team has been dominant. However, they simply do not have good enough value at +290 to make a bet.
The Philadelphia Eagles are the favorites to make it out of the NFC. As the NFL’s only remaining undefeated team, Jalen Hurts, and the Eagles have +550 odds to win the Super Bowl in February.
There is no question this team is dangerous, but they are still unproven for the time being. Their opponent’s combined record is just 16-19; granted, their win against a great Dallas defense was impressive.
Outside of the Eagles, no NFC teams have jumped out as elite. The Eagles will more than likely finish the one seed by Week 18, earning a first-round bye and making +550 pretty valuable. However, be warned about this team come playoff time.
Value Picks
Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers just suffered a brutal loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Everyone is questioning the Bucs and selling their stock on the team, making it the perfect time to hit their Super Bowl odds at +1100.
The offense hasn’t quite clicked yet, but every Tom Brady-led team is at its best-come playoff team.
The Dallas Cowboys are another team you can get for incredible odds at +2300. This defense, led by second-year stud Micah Parsons is amongst the best in the NFL. If Dak Prescott can return from injury with his feet running, this could be the second-best team in the NFC. However, that is a big if.
Anytime you can find Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid at +800 to win the Super Bowl, it’s a good value bet. It’s no guaranteed wins, but Patrick Mahomes has played in every AFC Championship game since he broke out in 2018.
While everyone views the Bills as the best team in the AFC, rightfully so since they just beat the Chiefs, it’s still crazy to rule out this Chiefs team that continues to show up in January. Everyone is off the Chiefs for some reason, so their value will never be higher than right now.
If you are feeling ambitious, the Cleveland Browns at +7500 isn’t as wild as people make it out to be. While the Browns are 2-4 at this point, they close the season with the Texans, Bengals, Ravens (home), Saints (home), Commanders, and Steelers.
Nick Chubb, running behind this offensive line, has been established as the best-run game in the NFL. Pair that with a Deshaun Watson and Amari Cooper duo, and you could have a scary-looking offense. Jacoby Brissett needs to keep this team afloat until Watson returns in Week 12. However, this is assuming Watson is still an elite-level QB. At this point, that is no guarantee.